By Ch. Narendra
The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP 27, beginning at Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt on November 6 that continues till November 18 is likely to face a greater challenge in ensuring a collective climate goals agenda, in view of prevailing global conflicts.
The main aim of the conference is to spur action towards achieving the world’s collective climate goals as agreed under the Paris Agreement. In the background of the changes in global climate system and the increasingly dire warnings about the future, the task facing delegates at COP 27 has never been greater.
However, the current geopolitical tensions is likely to cast a long shadow on what could potentially be a lackluster, if not disastrous, COP 27. It has already taken its toll on climate change cooperation just when collective action at the global level is needed more than ever.
For example, the war in Ukraine has contributed to the largest energy shock in decades, driving up oil and gas prices and reshaping the global energy system. That could have both positive and negative consequences.
On the one hand, concerns about energy security in the wake of the war has led a number of European countries to accelerate their transition towards cleaner energy. That could prove beneficial in the long run.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine also gave a boost to coal-fired power across Europe. That could drastically increase carbon emissions in the short-term. Besides, the war in Ukraine has fractured relationships between the US and Russia and between Europe and Russia and that could imperil collective action on climate change at the global level.
Tensions have also increased between China and the US over Taiwan. Following a visit to the country by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August, China has suspended climate talks with the US. The move marks a setback to intensified dialogue on climate change between the world’s two biggest emitters.
The US and china together are responsible for about 40 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and a breakdown in cooperation between them could spell disaster for global efforts to combat climate change and for COP 27.
The main aim of the climate summit is to spur action towards achieving the world’s collective climate goals as agreed under the Paris Agreement in 2015. Current greenhouse gas reduction pledges for action by 2030 remains insufficient and even if they are implemented in full, it will still lead to a rise in global average temperature of about 2.5°C by the end of the century.
However, the climate summit is unlikely to yield more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction pledges and actions. As such, the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is likely to be surpassed this decade. At the same time, there are growing calls for rich, high-emitting countries to compensate developing ones so that they can put in place infrastructure and other measures to reduce the worst impacts of climate change.
In other words, loss and damage finance for countries experiencing the worst consequences of climate change will be a key and contentious issue at COP 27. Following a devastating flood, Pakistan has emerged as a vocal proponent of loss and damage finance.
One commentator went as far as to suggest that rich countries “caused the recent catastrophic flooding” and they should pay up for the damages incurred. Rich countries however have rejected such claims, fearing unlimited liabilities.
They did promised to provide USD 100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries during COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009. That promise however has not been realized.
