Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, New Delhi’s primary concern had been to evacuate the 20,000-odd Indian nationals stuck in various cities, many of whom found their way to the borders to enter the neighbouring nations. Most of the Indian nationals were medical students.
However, another prime concern within the establishment is supply of weapons as most of what India imports are of Russian origin. While it is still unclear how the new sanctions could play out and the problems they could create for the armed forces in the short and long term, the possible impact of Russia’s unprecedented economic isolation on India’s military preparedness and the serviceability of weapons and equipment is alerting our defence establishment.
Soon after Russian’s invasion, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had met three service chiefs to take stock of the situation, vis-à-vis, pending Russian weapons imports, delivery and reserves of spares, and the maintenance of the ones.
Officials within the defence establishment maintain that it is too early to take a call on what kinds of issues Indian forces might face in the long run because of the conflict and the sanctions. But the situation has once again put India’s reliance on Russia for weapons under the spotlight.
Russia has been for decades India’s largest defence exporter, and India has bought weapons worth nearly US$ 35 billion in the last 20 years from it. Russia has been the largest arms supplier to India since the early 1970s. Today, 60% of India’s military hardware inventory is from Russia or the former Soviet Union and the bulk of India’s license-based defense manufacturing comes from Russia.
Each of the three services has a raft of Russian-origin weapons and platforms. The Indian Air Force operates fighter jets such as Sukhoi-30s, MiG-29s and MiG-21s, Il-76 and An-32 transport planes, Il-78 midair refuellers, Mi-35 attack helicopters and Mi-17 utility choppers.
The navy’s sole aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and the MiG-29K fighter jets it operates are from Russia, and so are its Kilo-class submarines, Rajput-class destroyers and Talwar-class frigates. The army operates Russian-origin T-90 and T-72 tanks, BMP-II infantry combat vehicles, Smerch and Grad multi-rocket systems and several surface-to-air missile systems.
Payment will be tricky
While most people in the Indian defence establishment do not doubt Russia’s capacity to deliver the weapons or provide spares, how to pay for them, circumventing the global sanctions, will be tricky.
As the West tries to isolate Russia, cutting it off from the global SWIFT system and most western banks shutting down their Russian operations, the Reserve Bank of India has asked Indian banks to explore other avenues.
Defense officials noted the new sanctions will certainly halt the financial transactions of several Russian defense companies. This will have a direct impact on India as contracts between the two countries are valued using U.S. dollar calculations, but, in some cases, the payment is made through the rupee-ruble mechanism.
India today imports over 10,000 types of spares and line replacement units worth over $500 million annually from Russia. Defense officials acknowledged efforts to indigenize spares and line replacement units for Russian weapons and platforms to reduce the dependency on imports have not been very successful, mostly, they say, because local suppliers are not given long-term commitments.
From fighter jets, tanks and submarines, to air defence systems, frigates and rifles, more than 60 per cent of the weapons available with Indian Armed Forces are of Russian origin. Many of these weapons also have Ukrainian components, including missiles and gas turbines for warships.
India has already signed agreements worth over $12 billion with Russia for some significant weapons to be delivered in the coming years.In the short term, both Indian and Russian sides have assured that the delivery of the four of the five S400 Triumf air defence units that the country had bought in 2018 will continue as per schedule. There could be some delay, but that, too, is unlikely.
Apart from that, India is waiting for the delivery of two Talwar-class frigates from Russia, for which Ukraine had supplied the gas turbines. Ukraine was also supposed to supply gas turbines for two more such frigates, which will be built in India though.
India is also getting two nuclear ballistic submarines on lease from Russia, Chakra 3 and Chakra 4, the first of which is expected to arrive in 2025. All these projects could be jeopardised under the threat of sanctions.
While the United States had been lenient with India in imposing sanctions under their 2017 law Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), but in the changed global situation, there are concerns that the US may not be as tolerant as India continues to buy sophisticated weapons from Russia.
Short-term sanctions unlikely to impact
Replying to a question on whether sanctions on Russia by the West will impact India’s defence imports, Niti Aayog member V K Saraswat, , former DRDO chief, said: “The reserve is very high. These kinds of short-term sanctions are not likely to create any problems for India.”
He pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already said that now the government wants to have 68% of defence equipment of indigenous variety.
“And that is why in Budget 2022-23, the finance minister announced that now there should be more and more Indian industry which should manufacture military equipment for the armed forces,” he added.
The officials within the defence establishment have assured that the armed forces have spares for more than six months as stocks were renewed owing to the ongoing standoff with China in eastern Ladakh since May 2020. However, with multiple nations across the world having imposed sanctions on Russia, it might get difficult for India to ensure a steady supply of the spares.
India, which has ordered about $8 billion worth of military supplies from Russia, faces new uncertainty. Indian military officials said they expect short-term delays in deliveries of S-400 Triumf missile systems, Grigorovich-class stealth frigates, and Kalashnikov AK 203-7.62x39mm assault rifles, as well as spares supplies for Kilo-class submarines, MiG-29 fighters, and Kamov Mi-17 military transport helicopters.
India’s other ambitious projects for joint development of hypersonic missiles and an over-the-horizon surface radar system could face uncertainty, said a senior defense scientist who requested anonymity because he’s not authorized to comment.
India is also now unlikely to finalize any technology partnership agreement with Ukroboronprom, the umbrella corporation of Ukrainian defense companies for local production of sub-assemblies and spares for Soviet and Russian weaponry.
One Indian Air Force official said it seems India will not ever get deliveries of Vympel R-27 air-to-air missiles and upgraded kits and sub-assembly for Antonov An-32 military transport aircraft from Ukraine because the factories could be destroyed in the ongoing Russian invasion.
Indian armed forces also procured directly from Ukrainian defense companies’ limited quantities of LRUs and other spares for Russian BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles, Grad & Smerch multi-barrel rocket launcher systems and Mi-17V-5 helicopters.
The recent global developments have highlighted the need for achieving self-reliance in the defence sector. Army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane said the biggest lesson from the Ukraine crisis was that India has to be ready to fight future wars with indigenous weapons.
A country that imports its major armament systems cannot indigenise them through sporadic policy changes and a media blitz, said Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (retd), former additional director general of the Centre for Air Power Studies.
From raising foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing to creating a separate budget for buying locally-made military hardware and notifying two lists of weapons/equipment that cannot be imported, the government has taken several measures to boost self-reliance in the defence sector over the last two to three years.
