Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to move forward into Ukraine, aiming at get hold over the neighbouring country. Initially, reports suggest that he was hopeful of getting control over that country within couple of days.
Thinking that the fighting capabilities of Ukraine forces are limited and as USA and NATO allies forces unlikely to swing into action, President Volodymyr Zelensky will have no option but to `surrender’ or `run away’ from the country.
But surprisingly, Russian forces exposed to unprecedented `resistance’ and even civilians also turning as `instant soldiers’. After three weeks war, the UK’s Defence Ministry estimated that the Russia’s offensives in Ukraine have “largely stalled on all fronts”.
When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, President Putin was so worried about Russian casualty figures coming to light that authorities accosted journalists who tried to cover funerals of some of the 400 troops killed during that one-month campaign.
But Moscow may be losing that many soldiers daily in Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine. The mounting toll for Russian troops exposes a potential weakness for the Russian president at a time when he is still claiming, publicly, that he is engaged only in a limited military operation in Ukraine’s separatist east.
It is believed that Russian forces have “made minimal progress on land, sea or air and they continue to suffer heavy losses. Ukraine military sources said that having `lost’ in ground battle, the Russia’s efforts have now switched to aerial attacks, bombing and shelling civilian populations, because they’ve been “unsuccessful” in their ground operations.
UK Defence sources felt that Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another “10 to 14” days. Having making disperate attempts to get hold of Ukraine capital Kiev, the Russian forces are said to be practically “on the run”. Ukraine’s resistance is said to be greater than Russian’s attacking force.
Within three weeks of the war, Russian manpower said to be runs short. The Russian Armed Forces are considered the fifth-largest military in the world but retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed its military shortcomings.
Putin never expected people’s resistance
According to him, the weaknesses are being revealed in terms of logistics and terrible maintenance. Prime lapses of Russian forces are enforcement of discipline. Moreover, Putin seems to be never expected that Ukrainian people will fight back drastically.
“Ukrainians have never-ending resource called heart, a will to defend their own country, and the Russian invaders that are murdering innocent civilians, don’t have that. That’s the key difference right here is what Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, when they’re doing versus what the Kremlin is sending into Ukraine,” Hodges added.
The resistance from Ukrainians and the urban warfare and ground attacks from Ukrainian soldiers forcing Putin and Russia’s military to change their strategy. After two weeks of fighting, Russia’s own force miscalculations and fierce Ukrainian opposition have dashed the Kremlin’s hopes of a lightning victory over Ukraine.
President Zelensky echoed optimism in an early-morning address to the Ukrainian people, saying his military continues to inflict ‘devastating losses on Russian troops.
“Soon the number of downed helicopters of Russia will reach hundreds of units. They have already lost 80 warplanes. Hundreds of tanks and thousands of other units of equipment. In 19 days, the Russian army has lost more in Ukraine than in two bloody and years-long wars in Chechnya,” he added.
But, as Russia’s invasion falters, its methods become more brutal, with cities increasingly coming under indiscriminate rocket fire. Putin’s stuttering invasion has forced even his close allies to admit, publicly, that things are not going to plan.
Russian National Guard chief Viktor Zolotov, once in charge of Putin’s personal security, admitted that “not everything is going as fast as we would like”. But he still insisted that Russia would achieve victory “step by step”.
Poor planning
Despite a large, well-equipped force, Russia is making a lot less progress in Ukraine than was expected. According to US defence officials, it was mostly due to inadequate training and experience of Russian forces.
“We don’t believe that they have properly planned/executed to logistics and sustainment of an expeditionary force,” the official said, nor do they coordinate their ground and air operations.
The U.S. military places a major emphasis on integrating capabilities across the services, so that infantry, amor, artillery, air support and any other measures are all working toward the same objective and supporting each other’s efforts. Russia doesn’t do it that way.
“What you’re seeing is poor planning running up against actual execution,” the official said, adding that they appear to be working through some of their challenges in real time.
Another stark reality is that, though they have a huge number of forces and plenty of high-tech equipment, they aren’t necessarily good at operating it.
Nowhere has that been clearer than in a miles-long column of vehicles that has been at a near stand-still for almost two weeks. At times believed to be an advance force heading to Kyiv, then a re-supply effort for troops already outside the city, the senior defense official confirmed that what’s left of it has started spreading out.
“They’re not going anywhere. It’s not like they’re off-roading their way to Kiev, but we believe they’ve moved off into tree lines to try to better disguise the vehicles because again, the Ukrainians continue to find ways to attack vehicles,” the official added.
The assumption had been that Russia, with its massive overmatch in air power and long-range firepower, would win the first stage of the war on the battlefield, even if it then found itself locked in a long-term struggle against a Ukrainian resistance. This would, in many ways, be the real challenge for Moscow: subduing a country the size of France with a population determined to regain their freedom.
Russia has still failed to establish air superiority and is suffering huge aircraft losses as a result. The Russian Air Force has noticeably increased its missile attacks on targets in the far west of Ukraine and will likely continue to back up threats against US and European resupply of Ukrainian forces with attacks near the Polish border.
There are reports that Russia requested military equipment and aid from China after beginning its invasion of Ukraine. This suggests that Russia has not fully mobilized its military-industrial complex to support an extended campaign.
Why Kyiv not falling easily?
At the outset, no one expected that it will be a difficult task for the Russian army to get control over Ukraine capital Kyiv, having reached outskirts of the city within few days after beginning of the war. Even several defence experts are also wondered over the fighting determination of civilians there.
It is very interesting to note the narration of two Ukrainian generals responsible for the defence of Kyiv with the BBC how their forces were fighting hard to keep Russian artillery out of range, and explained why they believe the city has strengths that will make all the difference against the Russians.
They felt that the city’s topography and terrain is on their side. The city is big and sprawling. It is cut up by rivers, not just the mighty Dnieper which divides Kyiv in two, but its tributaries. Rivers, bridges, are on the approaches to the city. Their troops are building defences and fortifications.
Around the city there are many small rivers that flow into the Dnieper and there are many peat bogs, so that means the area is not suitable for large-scale movement of troops.
Another advantage, according to Gen Kryschenko, is that Kyiv is an industrial city, with workshops and factories that have repurposed themselves to produce the items needed for fortifications – concrete blocks, sandbags, and a variety of savage-looking anti-tank obstacles.
The Ukrainians have deployed a well-organised and well-armed force, which has blown strategic bridges. Thousands of people displaced from the town of Irpin have been filing over the river on the remains of the one of them with a few possessions and very often, their dogs and cats.
But the Russians, said Gen Knyazev, have not been able to follow them. “These are such marshy lowlands, and they can’t pass them. If there were no Ukrainian soldiers, they would simply throw a pontoon crossing over the river. But we are there, and we want to destroy them,” he added.
“Given the many reports of over 4,000 Russians killed in action, it is clear that something dramatic is happening,” said Adm. James G. Stavridis, who was NATO’s supreme allied commander before his retirement. “If Russian losses are this significant, Vladimir Putin is going to have some difficult explaining to do on his home front.”
For a comparison, nearly 2,500 American troops were killed in Afghanistan over 20 years of war. For Putin the rising death toll could damage any remaining domestic support for his Ukrainian endeavors. Russian memories are long — and mothers of soldiers, in particular, American officials say, could easily hark back to the 15,000 troops killed when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan, or the thousands
