By C. Subramanyam
The political landscape of Andhra Pradesh is witnessing some interesting twists and turns as the state gears up for the 2024 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. While the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) led by chief minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is confident of retaining power with a massive mandate, the main opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) headed by former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu is leaving no stone unturned to make a comeback.
One of the major moves that has caught the attention of the political observers and analysts is Jagan’s decision to change the party candidates in about fifty percent of assembly constituencies, as part of his ambitious target of winning all 175 seats in the state.
Jagan, who had swept the 2019 polls with 151 seats and 22 Lok Sabha seats, is said to have consulted his core team and conducted surveys before finalizing the list of new candidates. He is also planning to bring some MPs to the assembly and send some MLAs to the Parliament, according to sources.
Jagan’s supporters claim that his seat change gamble is a masterstroke that will ensure the party’s victory in all the constituencies, as he is a visionary leader who knows the pulse of the people and has the courage to take bold decisions. They also point out that Jagan has a track record of winning elections with huge margins, as he did in 2019.
However, Jagan’s critics contend that his seat change gamble is a blunder that will backfire and damage the party’s image and morale. They accuse Jagan of being autocratic and whimsical in his decision-making, without considering the sentiments and aspirations of the party workers and leaders.
They also warn that Jagan’s seat change gamble could trigger resentment and rebellion among the party cadre, as well as create confusion and discontent among the voters.
Former MP Undavalli Arunakumar, who is known for his outspoken views, opined that Jagan’s seat change gamble is not a wise move, as it could prove counterproductive in the long run. He cited the example of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), which lost the recent Huzurabad by- election in Telangana due to its seat change policy.
He said that changing seats is not a guarantee for victory, and advised Jagan to act strategically and cautiously in the matter of MLA seat change. Arunakumar also said that Jagan’s seat change gamble reflects the lack of power and autonomy of the MLAs in the YSRCP.
He said that the government is run by Jagan and his volunteers, who have more influence and authority than the elected representatives. He said that it will be difficult for the party to survive if it acts according to its whims and fancies, without respecting the democratic norms and principles.
On the other hand, the TDP is trying to revive its fortunes by roping in the services of the renowned election strategist Prashant Kishor, who had worked with the YSRCP in the 2019 polls.
Prashant Kishor, who had announced his retirement from political consulting after working with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the West Bengal Assembly election in 2021, is said to have agreed to work with the TDP after meeting Chandrababu Naidu and his son Nara Lokesh recently.
Prashant Kishor, who is the founder of the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), is credited with crafting successful election campaigns for several parties across the country, such as the BJP in 2014, the JD(U) in 2015, the Congress- Punjab in 2017, the YSRCP in 2019 and the TMC in 2021.
He is known for his data-driven and innovative approach to electioneering, which involves extensive surveys, social media campaigns, grassroots mobilization and targeted messaging.
The TDP hopes that Prashant Kishor will help the party regain its lost ground and counter the popularity of Jagan. The party also expects that Prashant Kishor will be able to expose the failures and corruption of the YSRCP government and highlight the achievements and vision of the TDP. The party also believes that Prashant Kishor will be able to attract the youth and the fence-sitters to the TDP fold.
However, Prashant Kishor’s entry into the TDP camp is not without challenges and risks. He will have to deal with the internal differences and factionalism within the party, as well as the lack of enthusiasm and confidence among the party cadre.
He will also have to face the formidable challenge of taking on Jagan, who has a strong hold over the masses and the media. He will also have to contend with the anti- incumbency factor against the TDP, which had ruled the state for 14 years since its formation in 1983.
Jagan’s seat change gamble and Chandrababu’s Prashant Kishor card are two contrasting strategies that will shape the political battle in Andhra Pradesh in 2024.
While Jagan is banking on his charisma and welfare schemes, Chandrababu is relying on his experience and expertise. It remains to be seen who will have the edge in the electoral contest and who will emerge as the winner. As the countdown for the polls begins, the political drama in the state is likely to intensify in the coming months.
