There are several areas where it may not be easy for India to take a firm policy initiative. It needs to balance its relations with both Russia, Ukraine, USA and EU. Some of the concerns that India is likely to face in forthcoming days are here.
Recognising Russian territorial gains?
India was among the first major countries to recognize Russia’s interests in Crimea and has since abstained and voted against resolutions concerning Crimea, signaling implicit support of the Russian position.
It would be interesting to see what India’s approach will be to any further Russian territorial expansion in Eastern Ukraine. Would India continue with itside-facto recognition of Russian territorial gains or will there be a limit past which India would no longer be able to negotiate a balance between supporting Russia and not alienating Ukraine.
China’s response to Crimea coming under Russian control has been more neutral than India’s. In the event of any more territory changing hands, Russia may find itself internationally isolated as a result. India could use the opportunity to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
Ties with Ukraine
India also has a considerable stake in maintaining relations with Ukraine and not alienating it. Much of India’s Soviet/Russian origin military equipment is also dependent on components sourced from Ukraine.
The dependencies include gas turbines installed in many Indian Navy warships, AN-32 transport aircraft which need Ukrainian facilities, and components and expertise for their maintenance and overhaul.
India’s Russian-origin Mi 17 and Mi 35 helicopter fleets also depend on Ukrainian engines. India has also developed a semi-cryogenic engine for its space programme with Ukrainian collaboration and it may be operational very soon.
Other Risks
India has, in recent years, diversified its defence equipment needs by buying and inducting US platforms like the P8i Maritime Patrol Aircraft, the MH-60R, Chinook and Apache helicopters for its military. However, with the purchase of the now being delivered S-400 air defence system, India has signalled that it will not compromise on military capabilities for its national security.
India has spent Rs35,000 crores to purchase five squadrons of the Russian S-400 air defence system. The threat of US sanctions under the Counter America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) has loomed over the deal, though India has expected a waiver for the S-400 deal.
Legislation in the US has already been introduced to exempt India and other Quad partners from CAATSA but its prospects are unclear.
If a narrative painting India as a potential enabler of Russia is spun in the US with filibusters and mass media dissemination, there is a chance public opinion could turn against India receiving a CAATSA waiver.
There is a chance that the US’s attention can be drawn to Europe and away from Asia which might embolden China into acting more assertively in the Taiwan straits, in the South China Sea or Indo-Pacific, while US and its western allies in NATO are concentrated on Russia in Europe.
Russia may also up the ante with forays into the Indo-Pacific to put pressure on the US. There may be fears that China or Russia may try to spin a narrative signaling that their alliance is more than tentative and pragmatic, and that they may coordinate a hostile action involving both Ukraine and Taiwan.
However, beyond a “threat in being,” which likely will not materialise, the narrative may not hold substance as it would be extremely costly for China and Russia both to engage in a kinetic conflict.
Balance between Russia and US. India has good relations with both Russia and the US and siding with one of these countries could cost India its relationship with the other. However, India has maint its neutrality from distant conflict in Eastern Europe. Indian govt has abstained from the procedure vote on Ukraine at the UNSC. India’s position on the ongoing Ukraine crisis undergirded by the desire to keep clear of the c rosshairs of big power rivalry is reminiscent of its quintessential ‘strategic autonomy’.
S-400 delivery and US waiver. The crisis comes precisely as India’s purchase of the Russian S-400 msl sys is under way- and India hopes for a waiver of
U.S. sanctions on this. Conflict will complicate both the delivery of the sys, and the possibility of a presidential waiver.
Other concerns
Brings Russia China closer. The Crisis will make Moscow more dependent on friends like China and build a regional bloc of sorts that India is not a part of. Russia is already averse to the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad as a revival of Cold War bloc politics and views them as being against its Asia-Pacific interests. Any Ukraine conflict and a resulting breakdown of Russia-West ties will strengthen Russian opposition to these concepts and forums which are binding us to the US.
India’s Investment in Russia. India’s plans in Russia’s energy sector and in the development of its Far East, in general, would become problematic, especially by the reluctance of the private sector to fall afoul of the complex US sanctions. The new sanctions could exclude Russia from the Swift payments sys.
India did not join the Western powers’ condemnation of Russia’s intervention in Crimea and kept a low profile on the issue. In Nov 2020, India voted against a Ukraine-sponsored resolution in the United Nations (UN) that condemned alleged human rights violations in Crimea thereby backing old ally Russia on the issue.
In Feb 22, India also suggested at the UN Security Council that “quiet and constructive diplomacy” is the need of the hour and any step that could escalate the tension should be avoided. India’s stand has been welcomed by Russia.
