According to a Goldman Sachs estimate, India is on track to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, surpassing not just Japan and Germany but even the United States. According to the research, India’s GDP will be US$ 52.5 trillion by 2075, trailing China’s US$ 57 trillion but ahead of the US’ US$ 51.5 trillion.
Currently, India has the world’s fifth-largest economy, trailing Germany, Japan, China, and the United States. The Indian economy was expected to exceed US$ 3.5 trillion by the end of March, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament in January this year. According to UN forecasts, India surpassed China as the world’s most populated country early this year.
Goldman Sachs Research’s India economist, Mr. Santanu Sengupta said, increasing labour force participation, as well as giving training and skills to India’s vast pool of talent, is critical to achieving the promise of its burgeoning population.
Over the next two decades, India’s dependency ratio will be one of the lowest among regional economies,” he added, emphasising that India’s population has one of the best ratios between its working-age population and its number of children and the elderly. The dependency ratio is the ratio of dependents to the total working-age population in a country or region.
According to Mr. Sengupta, “innovation and increasing worker productivity will be important for the world’s fifth-largest economy”. According to the report, the government has prioritised infrastructure development, particularly roads and railroads.
Mr. Sengupta said the government had done “the heavy lifting in the recent past” in terms of capital investment. “However, given the healthy balance sheets of private corporates and banks in India, we believe the conditions are favourable for a private sector capex cycle”.
