“Today, the most vulnerable countries, which also need funding for climate mitigation, have a crushingly high debt burden. We can no longer talk about small changes, or about short-changing the poor. We need answers and we need them fast,” said Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).
She was commenting on the recently concluded Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, held in Paris, France. “The summit did not precipitate any transformational solutions, but it started a conversation on the climate and development financing crisis, and this momentum cannot be lost,” Narain added.
The first of its kind Paris Summit was spearheaded by President Emmanuel Macron of France, and was attended by many leaders from the developing world and Europe. It aimed at addressing the lack of money flowing to poor and vulnerable countries as they battle “a cocktail of interconnected crises” — as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia put it: poverty, debt and inflation triggered due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and increasing climate impacts.
Says Avantika Goswami, programme manager, climate change, CSE, who also attended the Summit proceedings in person: “Countries of the Global South are in a debt crisis and are facing pressure to decarbonise their economies — without adequate climate finance flowing in. The Summit was never expected to solve these problems in a day and a half, but it has started a crucial conversation. It shone a spotlight on the scale of these crises, the clear demands from countries of the Global South, and the pathways of action that the Global North is choosing to advocate for.”
Says Narain: “Every climate change disaster takes the Global South countries to greater indebtedness as they borrow to survive and rebuild. This year, we need to discuss structural issues that underpin the vast inequities in the world, which make it certain that countries in the Global South cannot afford the price of adaptation or mitigation. And we need to find the money and we need to do this fast.”
Indian economy and market would be among the best in the world by 2050
According to Goldman Sachs, the Indian economy and market would be among the best in the world by 2050 and may possibly exceed the US by 2075.
The US-based investment bank stated in a research titled “The Path to 2075-Capital Market Size and Opportunity” that growth in Emerging Markets (EM) will continue to outstrip that in the developed market (DM), with 7 of the top 10 world economies becoming EMs by 2075.
“We expect EM growth to continue to outpace DM growth over the rest of this decade (3.8% versus 1.8%). According to our projections, China, the United States, India, Indonesia, and Germany will be the world’s five largest economies in 2050.
Chief economist and head-Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Jan Hatzius, said that “By 2075, China, the US, and India are likely to remain the three largest economies and, with the right policies and institutions, seven of the world’s top ten economies are projected to be Ems”. EMs and the Indian capital markets are anticipated to gain prominence over the next decades as a result of better economic expansion.
He added, “Our projections imply that EMs’ share of global equity market capitalisation will rise from around 27% to 35% in 2030, 47% in 2050, and 55% in 2075. We expect India to record the largest increase in global market cap share–from a little under 3% in 2022 to 8% in 2050, and 12% in 2075–reflecting a favourable demographic outlook and rapid GDP per capita growth.”
