The impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine has confined to the borders of those two countries. But it is changing political and security alignments of the world. The post- Cold War era that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall is now ended, leading us to more dangerous times.
For the last couple of years USA is almost isolating itself from global political arena, particularly with President Donald Trump’s `America First’ slogan in 2016 Presidential poll. He practically started leading withdrawal of USA’s leadership from key international arena of climate change, WHO etc.
The US’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan was proof of a waning power withdrawing from the world stage.
On the otherhand, European national also started adopting `independent’ policies and distancing themselves from USA. They started cultivating close economic and strategic relations with Russia and China, ignoring USA’s attempts to isolate them from `international arena’.
But, this war now forcing European nations to distance themselves from Russia and bringing them close to USA, again. This certainly will lead to new economic and security partnerships in the world. Now, China is playing its own cards to grab global leadership by one hand moving close to Russia and other hand maintaining relations with European nations.
Whatever may be the outcome of the war, Russia is bound to be weaken economically and also security-wise. It badly needs Chinese support. Though China has been emerging as a major economic and defence power, bypassing Russia, till now Russia is having more political clout in global affairs, than China.
No-one expected the West to sanction the Russian Central Bank. Already, the rouble has collapsed and interest rates have doubled. No other major economy has ever been subjected to a package of sanctions this punitive. It amounts to the expulsion of Russia from the global economy.
China to take advantage
In order to take advantage from these unprecedented sanctions against Russia, now China want to occupy that position. Cleverly, China is moving towards a new security alliance with Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India with potential of challenging USA and European Union in global affairs.
Much will depend on how China negotiates this new landscape. China and Russia are bonded by their shared antipathy to American power, and their conviction that the greatest threat is from a resurgent, more unified democratic world. China does not want Putin weakened, or the West strengthened.
The sudden visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to New Delhi, without any formal announcement and holding three hours close interaction with his counterpart S Jai Shankar can be viewed its strong desire to bring India away from USA influence.
Having sensed about his desire, Prime Minister Narendra Modi practically avoided of meeting him, on the plea that he is having urgent schedule of attending Yogi Adityanath oath taking ceremony in Lucknow.
Europe ready to move away from Russia
The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called this moment a zeitenwende – a turning point – while UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said it was a “paradigm shift”. The age of complacency, she said, was over.
However, European leaders are short of applying measures against Russian gas supplies, fearing the consequences for their own energy security – Moscow supplies 40 percent of the EU’s collective gas needs and more than a quarter of its oil imports.
“We are not at war with ourselves,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “Sanctions must always have a much bigger impact on the Russian side than on ours.”
His position reflected that of EU nations like Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, which are running up against other member states situated closer to Russia that want tougher action now.
Amid the European dilemma, Canada, a member of G7, announced it will boost oil and gas exports to help its allies wean themselves off Russian energy.
The US and the EU are also set to unveil a deal in which Washington is pledging to deliver at least 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe this year than planned before.
US President Joe Biden announced a deal with the European Union to reinforce its energy supplies during his diplomatic marathon in Europe with a stop near Poland’s border with Ukraine.
In what Mr Biden called a “joint gameplan” to reduce the EU’s reliance on politically toxic Russian energy imports the US promised to speed up deliveries of liquefied natural gas to Europe – one of a battery of measures announced at back-to-back western summits to deal with the fallout of the war in Ukraine.
Call for peace, democracy and dialogue
Meanwhile, the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) represents 200 million members of 332 affiliates in 163 countries and territories, warns of devasting impacts of Putin’s war beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia and calls for peace, democracy and dialogue.
The war is causing untold human suffering and destruction. More than 3.5 million people have fled the country in less than a month, bringing the total number of refugees in the world to nearly 25 million.
The ITUC salutes the humanitarian work of its Ukrainian affiliates and the work of unions in neighbouring countries to welcome refugees and help meet their needs.
The priority must be an immediate Russian ceasefire and withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine the negotiation of a just and durable peace. The needs of the people of Ukraine and the reconstruction of the country will be enormous.
Global impacts
Beyond Russia and Ukraine, Putin’s invasion is having global geopolitical and economic consequences and has exposed weaknesses in the multilateral system:
- A worsening global jobs’ crisis: Dependence on Russian oil and gas exports means that energy costs around the world will increase even further and scarcity of some other products will impact global supply chains in a range of areas, putting jobs at risk. Employment levels have still not returned even to pre-pandemic levels – in 2021 there were 13 million fewer women in formal employment compared to 2019.
- Squeeze on households: Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grain. Various countries are heavily dependent on their exports of wheat, maize, other crops and cooking oil. The rising cost of energy and food, with a cost-of-living crisis already existing in many countries prior to the invasion, will intensify as global supply chain disruption in these and other commodities from the region add to the pressure on households already struggling because of low wages.
- Rising insecurity: The new war in Europe and the failure to keep peace in Africa, the Americas, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East have exposed the need for an effective global framework for common security.
- Diversion of finance: An increase in global military expenditure, currently around US$2 trillion a year, will divert vital finance away from crucial economic and social needs and the funding of climate action.
- Corporate greed: Just four commodity trading companies, which control most of the world’s trade in grain, made record profits last year as economies began to open up during the COVID-19 pandemic. With profiteering by energy companies as well, corporate greed must be not be allowed to cause even more insecurity and poverty.
- A growing global refugee crisis: Refugee numbers in the world are increasing, with the total number nearing 25 million and tens of millions more displaced within their own countries.
“Governments need to act to stop profit-gouging from this crisis and, with the international financial Institutions, take urgent steps to extend social protection to the millions upon millions of people around the world who face hunger, even starvation, unaffordable energy prices and shortages of key supplies such as fertilizer.
“There are also growing concerns that much-needed aid to Ukraine will be at least partly taken from official development assistance intended for some of the world’s least wealthy countries.
“Putin’s invasion is a nightmare for those who face the daily reality of bullets, bombs and rockets, and it will have extremely damaging consequences worldwide, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable.
“Urgent action is needed and lessons about fossil fuel dependency, diversity in global supply chains and the other fault lines revealed by this war, including the absence of a multilateral framework for common security, must be learned and applied.
“Many governments implemented emergency measures at the start of the pandemic, which helped keep many out of poverty and kept economies afloat. Now, with the global impact of Putin’s was and with inflation increasing, protecting workers’ wages will be vital, as will be the creation of decent jobs.
“Governments will need to consider pricing policies and responses to the economic impacts of this war will need to focus particularly on those most in need,” said ITUC General Secretary Sharan Burrow.
