China, which is waiting to weaken USA’s global influence, so that to emerge as a key international player, is keenly observing developments that related to Russian invasion on Ukraine. China’s tactic support to Russia and blaming USA and its allies for the present crisis are said to be only to build a strong case for itself to invade Taiwan.
Since last few months, Taiwan is alleging that China is preparing for a war so that to merge their country into its territory. Several recent incidents of Chinese Air Force flights flying through the Taiwan airspace are also giving suspension about its evil designs.
Taiwan is nervous that Beijing may take advantage of a distracted West to ramp up pressure on the island amid the crisis in Ukraine. As soon as, Ukraine crisis erupted a Chinese nationalist blogger, known as Huashan Qiong Jian said that it “will be a historic opportunity for us to solve the Taiwan problem”. The events were a huge drain on the energy of the US and had diverted Washington’s attention away from China, the commentator wrote.
“War in Ukraine will be a historical window for the unification of the motherland which we must not miss.” However, diplomats and longtime observers of Chinese policy dismiss the idea.
Very recently, Jin Canrong, a professor in Renmin University’s School of International Studies and an influential Chinese academic who advises Beijing on foreign policy said that Chinese President Xi Jinping will employ force to unify Taiwan with China by 2027. He also said that the People’s Liberation Army already has a posture superior to that of the U.S. to deal with a contingency involving Taiwan.
Taiwan is sprinting at an unprecedented pace to dissociate itself from all indicators which might somehow connect the democratic and sovereign island nation with the tyrannical People’s Republic of China, under an oppressive CCP regime.
Effectively, Taiwan off late has been taking long strides to dump the much touted “One-China Policy” of the Chinese Communist Party, which is regularly used as a pretext by Beijing to flex its muscles around its neighborhood. However, important developments have now been noted from Taipei, which are bound to irk Xi Jinping’s dictatorial and belligerent regime.
US, China’s neighbours worry
But both the US and some of China’s neighbours worry that a war in Ukraine would make an already assertive Beijing even stronger. Ahead of the present conflict, a China expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank Alexander Gabuev said that if war happens; it will be a huge distraction for the US. For China, that would be an opportunity of the same magnitude as 2014,” said Alexander Gabuev, He was referring to the last Ukraine crisis when Russia backed a separatist movement in the country and annexed Crimea.
Since Russia started isolating itself from US and Europe from the regime of Donald Trump, its proximity with China is growing in several key sectors. For example, China’s share of Russia’s external trade doubled from 10 to 20 percent between 2013 and 2021.
While Donald Trump was aggressive against China and resorted to several financial sanctions, President Joe Biden is seen very diplomatic. Instead of directly confronting with China, he is adopting a strategy of cementing relations with allies to intensify pressure on Beijing.
While providing tactical support to Russia in forums like UN Security Council and also opposing west’s sanctions, China is closely observing two aspects since the beginning of Ukraine conflict. First, to what extend US and its allies move forward if it invades Taiwan. Secondly, how far their sanctions will impact them?
Certainly, speed and severity with which the US and its allies sanctioned Russia is a bold warning to China. With this experience, China is likely to modify its foreign and economic policies so that to prepare themselves to face.
Europe more worried about Russia
Moreover, it also proved that the Europe is more worried about Russia as an existential threat and ready to team up with USA in this regard. This development is certainly upset China’s new diplomacy of strengthening its relations with Europe as a “balancing act” against threats from USA. Also not it became difficult to maintain relations with Europe, while extending tactical support to Russia.
Already China started massive efforts to ensure country’s self-reliance, since President Donald Trump sanctioned telecommunications against Huawei and slapped tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.
While Trump did all that singlehandedly , simultaneously damaging ties with Europe and provoking uncertainty among U.S. allies in Asia, Biden succeeding in taking allies with him while imposing sanctions on Russia.
Moreover, Trump’s tirade against China led to accelerate its efforts to firm up ties with Europe. However, the Ukraine conflict threatened all its decade-long hold built up in Europe.
Till now China was hoping to sue the European Union as a way to offset the pressure it was facing from the US. But, now it is clear that China is dealing with a host of its own economic challenges, from sluggish consumer demand to a slowdown in its massive property sector. Politically, Beijing is concerned with stability this year as leaders are set to meet in the fall to give Xi an unprecedented third term.
