S&P Global forecasted an average annual growth of 6.7% from the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) to FY31, with capital accumulation serving as the primary driver of this growth, expressing confidence in the medium-term growth potential of the Indian economy.
In a report titled ‘Look Forward: India’s Moment’, S&P predicted that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) would nearly double to US$ 6.7 trillion by FY31 from US$ 3.4 trillion in FY23. This increase would correspond to a per capita GDP of around US$ 4,500, it said.
A similar prediction was made by Standard Chartered Bank, which stated that by the end of FY30, the Indian GDP would nearly treble to US$ 6 trillion. The bank predicted that domestic spending and external commerce would drive this rise, with per capita income rising by roughly 70% to US$ 4,000 from US$ 2,450 during that time.
The S&P assessment indicated that India would continue to have the fastest-growing economy among the G20 nations, notwithstanding the prospect of a slowing to 6% in FY24 caused by a global recession and the delayed impacts of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy rate rises.
Chief Economic Advisor Mr. V Anantha Nageswaran in an interview included in the report emphasised the importance of the manufacturing sector and the need for a shift to high-value-added services. This shift would be essential to sustain a growth rate of 7-7.5% until 2030.
He listed India’s competitive advantages, which include skilled labour, improved physical infrastructure, a well-established industrial ecosystem, and a large domestic market.
