Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN &V Expert – FAO/UN
Convenor, Forum for a Sustainable Environment
With the heavy rains Kaleswaram pumps were submerged. To overcome the criticism from opposition and public, TRS Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, during his tour to flood effected zone in Bhadrachalam area, invented a new theory that heavy rains were caused by cloud bust engineered by foreign hand. For this he quoted several examples, which are nothing to do with the cloud burst theory.
He cited Uttarkhand 2013 flood ravage. In fact this is human induced destruction. Hardly 10 pilgrims were dead with the heavy downpore in situ. But the gushing water in the steep slope in the river washed away the huge structures/property and killed more than 10,000 people due to lapses from the government. Structures were built in the river. This is same with Srinagar, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, etc.
He also cited China Olympics. Here the organizers of Olympics to avoid rains in the place of games, conducted cloud seeding in the upwind side. They were successful but farmers fought with the government on this.
Low pressure systems give copious rains on its path. AP initiated cloud seeding operations. The seeding firm started seeding low pressure system. This affected the rains downwind path. When I raised this issue in the technical committee meeting in JNTUH with the firm, they simply said that it is not part of our agreement.
Then I sent a mail to Chief Minister, (Late) Dr. Y. S. Rajashekara Reddy, explaining the negative impacts of seeding low pressure systems – reduction in rainfall on the downwind direction of seeding zone –. Government closed the project, though Agriculture Minister put tender for five more years, this was not approved.
IMD report observed that the present heavy rains were associated with “The Madden – Julian Oscillation – a travelling pattern that propagates eastward at approximately 9 to 18 mph” — Oscillation means cold followed warm or wet followed dry. This showed patches of clouds that caused heavy rains.
It formed in Arabian Sea moved to Telangana State via Coastal Gujarat and Maharashtra around Godavari birthplace. This later moved to northwards clearing rains in TS with a system forming in Arabian Sea and moving towards AP via Karnataka in a southwest to northeast direction.
This is a natural system, as M-J Oscillation, while moving from Arabian Sea gather moisture to precipitate heavily on its way in patches and not continuity way unlike monsoon rains or cyclonic rains. Here one important point: While I was with ICRISAT, I developed a thumb rule – when low pressure system persists in Bengal/Kolkata region, Hyderabad will be dry and vice versa.
